| All of the doom and gloom amongst naysayers about our chances in this years midterms simply does not tally when we drill down into race by race analysis in California.
For a start I think that all 34 Democratic incumbents are as safe as houses - yep including McNerney in the 11th and Sanchez in the 47th.
So what about all 19 Republican held districts?
Here we go:
CA-02 (Herger) - R+11,
Obama/McCain - 42.7/55
Kerry/Bush - 36.6/62
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 33.12/45.09
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 33.81/43.18
House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.1/57.9
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+11 district next year that we don't already hold?
We don't even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
CA-03 (Lundgren) - R+6,
Obama/McCain - 49.2/48.7 (1592 Votes!)
Kerry/Bush - 40.8/58.2
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 36.14/42.70
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 37.73/39.58
House result 2008 (D/R)- 44/49.5
This one is definitely going to be competitive!
Bera led the COH race as at end of September 585K/446K - an impressive effort indeed. With all other Democratic candidates withdrawing and endorsing him and with a rapidly closing Voter reg gap this district will be the scene of a torrid race. Note also that Obama narrowly carried it.
CA-04 (McClintock) - R+10,
Obama/McCain - 43.9/54
Kerry/Bush - 37.4/61.3
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 30.28/47.86
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 31.14/45.83
House result 2008 (D/R)- 49.7/50.3
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don't already hold? Especially as we don't have a candidate yet and 2006/8 nominee Charlie Brown is definitely not running.
Enough said.
CA-19 (Radanovich OPEN) - R+9,
Obama/McCain - 46/52.1
Kerry/Bush - 37.9/61.1
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 36.09/46.73
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 37.19/43.62
House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed
Our candidates are seriously 2nd tier and need to step up massively if this is to be competitive. Do we have a State Rep who can run?
CA-21 (Nunes) - R+13,
Obama/McCain - 42.1/56.3
Kerry/Bush - 33.7/65.4
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 33.84/49.55
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 34.89/46.76
House result 2008 (D/R)- 31.6/68.4
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+13 district next year that we don't already hold?
We don't even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
CA-22 (McCarthy) - R+16,
Obama/McCain - 38.3/59.7
Kerry/Bush - 31/67.9
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 30.06/51.21
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 31.29/48.31
House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+16 district next year that we don't already hold?
We don't even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
CA-24 (Gallegly) - R+4,
Obama/McCain - 50.5/47.7
Kerry/Bush - 43.1/55.7
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 34.15/44.12
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 35.83/41.82
House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.8/58.2
This one should be competitive but one of our candidates needs to put the foot down on the fundraising pedal. Is there a top tier candidate out there?
CA-25 (McKeon) - R+6,
Obama/McCain - 49.4/48.3
Kerry/Bush - 39.9/58.8
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 34.52/43.76
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 37.77/39.29
House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.2/57.8
This one too should be competitive but either Conaway fundraises like crazy or we get a better candidate.
CA-26 (Dreier) - R+3,
Obama/McCain - 51/47
Kerry/Bush - 43.7/55.1
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 33.54/44.42
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 35.67/40.50
House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.4/52.7
On paper this should be right up there but is Warner the guy to do it?
If so better start raising the dough.
CA-40 (Royce) - R+8,
Obama/McCain - 46.6/51.1
Kerry/Bush - 38.4/60.2
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 32.04/46.78
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 33.86/42.75
House result 2008 (D/R) - 37.4/62.6
No Candidate no chance. Simple really. Even with a good candidate it is a tough district.
CA-41 (Lewis) - R+10,
Obama/McCain - 43.7/54.2
Kerry/Bush - 36.9/61.8
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 32.18/47.80
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 34.12/44.20
House result 2008 (D/R)- 38.3/61.7
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don't already hold? Only if Lewis bails out owing to ethical "issues"!
Enough said.
CA-42 (Miller) - R+10,
Obama/McCain - 44.9/53.2
Kerry/Bush - 36.9/62
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 28.88/49.79
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 30.56/46.16
House result 2008 (D/R)- 39.8/60.2
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don't already hold?
Enough said.
CA-44 (Calvert) - R+6,
Obama/McCain - 49.5/48.6 (2532 Votes)
Kerry/Bush - 39.9/59
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 31.98/46.89
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 34.63/46.40
House result 2008 (D/R)- 48.8/51.2
Simple equation here. We have the candidate in Hedrick. If he can lift his fundraising game he may make a real of this. Remember he was the guy who delivered that 2008 result above.
CA-45 (Bono Mack) - R+3,
Obama/McCain - 51.5/46.9
Kerry/Bush - 43.1/56
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 35.85/45.53
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 37.81/42.08
House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.7/58.3
Pougnet is the mayor of Palm Springs and this will be a zinger IMHO. His fundraising is going well (347K COH as at end of September) and he obviously has a very high local profile.
CA-46 (Rohrabacher) - R+6,
Obama/McCain - 47.9/49.8
Kerry/Bush - 41.6/56.9
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 30.49/46.84
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 32.02/43.49
House result 2008 (D/R)- 43.1/52.6
No candidate presently this one is at best a long shot.
CA-48 (Campbell) - R+6,
Obama/McCain - 49.3/48.6 (2479 Votes)
Kerry/Bush - 40.4/58.3
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 27.13/49.32
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 29.40/44.77
House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.6/55.7
An intriguing district. Terribly low % of registered Dems and yet Obama won the district. Krom needs to put the foot down with her fundraising (126K COH as at end of September is not great) to make this an outside chance.
CA-49 (Issa) - R+10,
Obama/McCain - 45.1/53
Kerry/Bush - 36.5/62.5
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 28.50/47.96
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 30.94/43.86
House result 2008 (D/R)- 37.5/58.3
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don't already hold?
Enough said.
CA-50 (Bilbray) - R+3,
Obama/McCain - 51.3/47.1
Kerry/Bush - 43.9/55.2
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 29.62/43.64
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 31.40/40.27
House result 2008 (D/R)- 45.2/50.3
We lost our best candidate here (Roberts), Busby is I think flawed and Emblem has yet to make a splash. And yet Obama won the district.
Either Emblem steps up her fundraising or we get a better candidate IMHO.
CA-52 (Hunter) - R+9,
Obama/McCain - 45/53.4
Kerry/Bush - 37.7/61.4
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 - 29.87/45.66
Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 - 31.41/42.90
House result 2008 (D/R)- 39/56.4
Does anyone think we are going to win a R+9 district next year that we don't already hold?
We don't even have a candidate yet.
Enough said.
So in summary:
Competitive race:
CA-03, CA-45
Competitive if fundraising steps up:
CA-44, CA-48
A chance if the candidate steps up their fundraising or we find a more viable candidate:
CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-50
Long shot:
CA-19, CA-40, CA-46
Forget it:
CA-02, CA-04, CA-21, CA-22, CA-41, CA-42, CA-49, CA-52.
Not bad 2 definitely competitive races and two more that could become so if our candidates step up the fundraising. Another 4 as well that could be competitive in the right circumstances. Not bad in an environment that is supposedly toxic for Democrats.
A last word also on the two supposedly vulnerable Democratic Districts:
CA-11 (McNerney) - R+1,
The GOP lost their best candidate when Del Arroz withdrew. If presumptive frontrunner Grape Grower Brad Goehring makes it out of the torrid Primary (7 candidates and counting) he will still remain a 2nd tier candidate, albeit one that can self fund. McNerney will be waiting with his 675K COH as at end of September. Following from an 11 point victory last year and near parity in voter reg (in 2006 there was a 5% GOP edge) McNerney will be just fine.
CA-47 (Sanchez) - D+4,
Does anybody really think that a D+4 District is going to flip in California next year? The Tran/Pham GOP Primary promises to be a zinger and the winner gets to take on an incumbent who got 69% of the vote last year and has 769K COH as at the end of September as well as a 12% party reg gap.
This one ain't gonna flip.
What say you? |
