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2009 Election Roundup

by: admin

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Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 09:21:59 AM CST


Here are a few of my observations and some links to follow

1. Virginia and New Jersey Gov's Races -

New Jersey - Corzine ran a very polarizing campaign and too personal against Christie. Voters wanted change and I'm not sure Corzine's personal wealth was ever really endearing. Anti-incumbent sentiment clearly in play.

Virginia - Dems gave up on Deeds due to his Blue Dog views. No enthusiasm near the end. Deeds should not have lost by as much as he did.

Here's a good wrap up by Nate Silver - he doesn't feel that either are a mandate on Obama

2. Gay Marriage in Maine - This is a tough one to take this morning. The Bangor Daily News reports
that the repeal passed by a 53 - 47 vote. This is not a long term defeat though. I believe that it is encouraging that 47% voted against the repeal. Anti voters were more enthusiastic in extremely rural areas of the state.

Not a terrible night for equality though. It looks like Referendum 71 in Washington passed extending benefits to same-sex partners

3. NY-23 -  A pushback against the extreme conservative "rock stars" of the GOP. Owens success hinged on Scozzafava suspending her campaign and endorsing him. The voters rejected the national politics influence of Hoffman. This in my opinion was the race most closely resembled what is an affirmation or rejection of President Obama.

4. Mayoral Elections

Atlanta - Will be a runoff between Mary Norwood and Kasim Reed. Did racial lines define results ?

Quite possibly although Norwood performed well and above what expected in some African American precincts. The media will turn this into a referendum on race.

New York - Bloomberg was elected to a third term. But the vote was much closer than expected. Could Democrats have won his election if they had paid more attention? Should it have been a forgone conclusion that Bloomberg would win easily?

Charlotte - Anthony Foxx becomes the city's first Democratic Mayor in 20 plus years since Harvey Gantt.

Houston Runoff between City Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Lock.

Anything else catch your eye?

admin :: 2009 Election Roundup
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Did the Gop win? (4.00 / 2)
your thoughts

Providing in-depth analysis of elections

Not sure (4.00 / 1)
They beat some weak candidates.. but did I consider that in '08 when we cleaned up? Not really.

How important are the Virginia and New Jersey governorships? VA does there's every two years right? That's why they say Virginia is for Governors.

We increased our margin in the House by 2. That's not hurting.  


[ Parent ]
This one was largely meaningless (4.00 / 1)
And I wrote about how meaningless it was on GOS.

I'm not blessed or merciful. I'm just me. I have a job to do and I do it.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the Atlanta update (4.00 / 1)
And yes. I am sure that race had something to do with it, but crappy turnout didn't help.

When I studied this race in January, we assumed 40 percent turnout. They got 24 percent on a nice day.

Not good.

Anyway, I posted my election post-mortem on Daily Kos.  

I'm not blessed or merciful. I'm just me. I have a job to do and I do it.


atlanta usually has runoffs in mayoral election (4.00 / 2)
Shirley franklin did not have one in either of her terms. Low turnout benefits norwood in the runoff. However reed showed much better than expected. I think he got a lot more of borders support ththan was anticipate. Will borders and franklin endorse reed ?  

Providing in-depth analysis of elections

[ Parent ]
Shirley Franklin should endorse Reed (4.00 / 2)
He was her campaign manager.

I have heard third hand that Reed's problem was trying to micromanage the campaign as if he were a, well, campaign manager.

I'm not blessed or merciful. I'm just me. I have a job to do and I do it.


[ Parent ]
but if he micromanages a campaign imagine what (4.00 / 2)
he would do as a mayor.

what is your take on norwood?

Providing in-depth analysis of elections


[ Parent ]
Don't know (4.00 / 2)
My project focused on Reed. Norwood seemed a bit unqualified, but not particularly bad. I would be happier with Reed, though.

Incidentally, this was a non-partisan race and all of the candidates were nominally Democrats.

I'm not blessed or merciful. I'm just me. I have a job to do and I do it.


[ Parent ]
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